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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.